HAS HAALAND'S GAME LEVELLED UP THIS SEASON or HAVE HIS TEAM MATES IMPROVED?

The graph below shows a 7-game (amount of matches played this season) rolling average of Erling Haaland’s non-penalty xG and xA.

A clear dip in expected goals is visible around ⅓ though the 24/25 season. This dip correlated with Manchester City’s team-wide crisis; one win in 13 games, remember?

Looking at his first seven games this season, it’s easy to conclude that the dip and crisis are gone. It is important to note however, that Haaland has started each of his four seasons for Man City in similar fashion, reaching similar extraordinary expected output.

A dip that happened way earlier than his expected goals slump, has been his finishing. He ended the 22/23 season having scored 2.5 more non-penalty goals than expected. However, during the 23/24 season his finishing performance decreased to –3.75. His strong start last season is again visible, as well as the following ‘crisis’. This trendline is also rising again in 25/26.

While it’s too early to claim that Haaland is back to his best yet, this article aims to explore how he has leveled up his game this season.

What changed?

Before we dive into Haaland’s own game, we need to discuss changes in his environment. Transfer-wise, Man City did well in replacing the aging De Bruyne and Gundogan. They brought in a creative player in Cherki and an all-round midfielder in Reijnders, targeting similar archetypes as their predecessors. Besides his ball progression ability, Reijndes ranks within the top 1% of midfielders in shots and within the 86th percentile in box touches (fbref). This box crashing ability helps draw defenders away from Haaland. Leave him 1v1 inside the box and he will use his athleticism and positioning to find space for a shot. Static domination We will analyse Haaland’s struggles during last season’s match-up against Southampton. This was his most recent game in which he played the full 90 minutes. Despite dominating this game in terms of possession (72%), Manchester City failed to generate high value chances for their best goal scorer. Haaland ended the game with only 1 shot - a 0.05 xG header from a corner in the 92nd minute. The Norwegian attempted fewer shots than eight of his teammates. Overall, they ended the game with 26 shots, of which none qualified as ‘big’ chances and only 5 hit the target.

Man City started the game against Southampton with 4 attacking midfielders behind Haaland: Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Foden, and McAtee. Although all high-skilled on-ball players, none of them provide width or have the pace and directness in transitions like regular wingers. This led to a static one-sided game, in which Southampton were happy to let their opponents pass the ball within the final third, whilst they clogged the box with multiple defenders. In these situations Haaland was often marked by two defenders and none of their midfielders had the ability to beat a defender 1v1 or made runs into the box to break the low block.

The image below is characterising for Man City’s first half against Southampton.

Here he finds himself in between two central defenders. De Bruyne (17) and Kovacic (8) make no effort to occupy a defender, but rather watch the play develop passively. McAtee is standing still at the edge of the box. Haaland eventually decided to try his luck from the left side of the box, leaving his two markers.

However, he then finds himself double-teamed by Southampton’s third central defender and one of their midfielders who has decided to drop into an even lower position.

Notice how De Bruyne and Kovacic are still watching passively, and McAtee is standing still. Without take-on threats or progressive runners, Man City failed to break the low block or find Haaland in 1v1 situations.

Has Haaland leveled up?

The biggest difference when comparing Haaland’s performance last season to this season in the radar plot below is not his goalscoring/shooting data. He has increased most in terms of creativity and progressive carrying

This improvement has come from a more direct play style as a team. The addition of Reijnders and Guardiola’s decision to start with either Doku, Savinho, or Bobb on the wing has allowed them to thrive also in a more direct play-style rather than just final third domination. Their average possession has decreased from 61.3% last season to 57% so far. This has ignited a version of Haaland that reminds me of his early Dortmund days — remember his debut hat-trick against Augsburg.

Against Wolves for example, Haaland’s first goal came from a direct attack. Reijnders starts a carry from inside his own half into the final third.

He continues his carry into the final third and decides to play a vertical chipped pass to Lewis, rather than slow play down with a horizontal pass. Haaland was already anticipating a through ball from an off-side position, much like Gonçalo Ramos’s positioning before his goal against Barcelona in the Champions League last week.

When Lewis receives the ball inside the box, Haaland is suddenly on-side and makes a blindside run on the outside of his defender, who is watching the ball. The resulting shot is impossible to miss.

Haaland didn’t touch the ball in the sequence leading up to Man City’s second goal against Wolves, but the goal does show their improved directness.

After an interception around the half-way line, City’s wingers and attacking midfielder - Doku, Bobb, and Reijnders - join Haaland in a quick transition, outnumbering Wolves. Haaland pins one defender which leaves Bobb and Reijnders 2v1.

Reijnders converts Bobb’s through ball calmly.

Man City’s third and Haaland’s second goal came from combining the mechanics of the previous goals. After a long pass, Reijnders starts a carry from inside his own half, whilst Doku, Bobb, and Haaland join him in this transition.

He then passes to Bobb on the right wing and immediately continues his run in behind the defensive line.

Haaland has delayed his run to separate himself from the defenders. Once Reijnders receives the ball inside the box, Haaland has increased his speed again and makes his decisive run into the box before finishing clinically.

This game against Wolves shows how the Norwegian thrives in a system that not only sets the team up to dominate possession, but also attack more vertically in transition. The addition of Reijnders helps this change of system, but most other players were here last season already.

Moreover, we saw glimpses of this Haaland last season as well. Even in the game against Southampton from before. After a static first half, Guardiola brought on Doku for McAtee.

The situation below is similar as before; City have possession out wide within the final third, Haaland is double teamed inside the box, and their midfielders are passively waiting for something to happen.

The difference here is that Doku does have the ability to beat his man (i.e., create something out of nothing).

He is able to find Bernardo Silva from the by-line. Haaland then recognized the space in between the goal area and penalty spot and dropped his defenders with a check-back run.

Bernardo Silva decides to shoot from a difficult angle however and ignores Haaland, who is asking for the ball; wide-open, between the goal area and penalty spot.

As a playmaker, Haaland was also not helped by teammates. He could've easily had two assists in this game.

In the situation below, De Bruynes makes a similar progressive carry as we have seen Reijnders do. Haaland recognizes the space, puts his head down, and starts to run in behind at high speed.

De Bruyne plays a through ball and Haaland is able to carry the ball into open space. His defender does well in decreasing the shooting angle, so Haaland decides to square the ball for one of O’Reilly or Savinho (both subbed on) to finish.

The Southampton defender highlighted in the image is able to slow the ball down with an all-or-nothing effort which makes it impossible for O’Reilly to receive the ball. Savinho could have had a wide-open chance here, but didn’t stagger his run and arrived within the same line as O’Reilly. Due to the defender’s touch, both players miss the ball and Haaland’s cross is “inaccurate”.

This is not his only created chance, squandered by poor cooperation between teammates.

In the situation below, Haaland tries to free himself from a continuous double team, by moving wide towards the far post.

De Bruyne recognizes the 1v1 situation and plays a cross, which seemed too deep and/or high at first sight; at least for the defender. Using his athleticism, Haaland is able to keep the ball in play and plays a perfect headed pass towards the open space between the goal area and penalty spot - the same space in which he was ignored by Bernardo Silva earlier.

Savinho (again) and Kovavic both decide to go to the ball and hinder one another. In the end, Savinho needs a few too many touches and a bit too much time to get a clear shot off.

If his teammates had been more alert during the second half, Haaland could have ended this game with a goal and two assists; even without the static first half.

These examples show that Haaland has not just leveled up his own games. He has also benefitted from increased directness and improved decision-making by his teammates. Although it will be hard to continue his current form, the yearly drop-off should not be as big as last edition’s - i.e., if Guardiola can balance directness and security around him, like he has done to start this season.

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