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RASHFORD AT BARCELONA: SHOULD HE START FOR ENGLAND AT WORLD CUP 2026?
- Mik Van Well
- 6 minutes ago
- 8 min read
Rashford has started his spell at Barcelona well, with 11 G+A in 14 games. At the brink of a World Cup year, the 28-year-old seems to be in a two-horse race with Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon for the starting left wing spot in England’s national team. Although Jack Grealish could enter the race for a place in Thomas Tuchel’s squad as well, if he continues his good form at Everton
The Twenty First Group has developed a model that assesses World Cup call-up likelihood based on international minutes, league minutes, positional depth, and age.
According to their model:
Marcus Rashford has a 71% chance of being selected for the World Cup.
Anthony Gordon ranks higher at 90%.
Jack Grealish, however, sits much lower at 14%.
Grealish’s low probability is likely due to his limited game time for Manchester City last season - 20 appearances, 7 starts, and an average of 37 minutes per match (Sofascore).
This season (25/26), he has already played more minutes for Everton. If he continues to earn consistent minutes at a high level, his call-up likelihood could rise significantly.
Before we dive deeper into Rashford’s performance at Barcelona, let’s compare these three candidates for the left wing position based on data.
Based on the past year’s performances in domestic and European competitions, Rashford leads his competitors in offensive metrics — non-penalty xG, xG assisted, shots, shot-creating actions, and box touches. He contributes a goal or assist every 158 minutes, compared to Gordon’s 205 and Grealish’s 214.
However, over a third of Rashford’s chance creation comes from set pieces, unlike Gordon (<10%) or Grealish (0%). While that makes him valuable for Barcelona, England already have set-piece specialists in Rice and Saka.
Rashford is also the weakest in ball progression, possession security, and defensive work — areas where Grealish excels. Gordon offers a middle ground, combining transition threat with control. His sprinting data (2nd most sprints in the PL, top speed of 37.01 km/h) and consistent minutes under Tuchel make him the most balanced option.
Ultimately, the choice depends on Tuchel’s tactical preference for the left wing. Rashford’s versatility could make him more useful as an impact substitute and backup for both left wing and striker, than as a starter.
Tuchel’s ideal left winger
Although always starting in a 4-2-3-1 formation, Tuchel likes to play in a diamond-shaped formation within the defensive and middle third, with fullbacks providing width. This requires/allows the winger to move inside, playing closer to the striker and attacking midfielder. Within the diamond, either one of the pivot midfielders can drop into the backline to create overloads, overcoming the opponents press. The positional structure up to the final third thus looks like the one used below, during their most recent match against Latvia, where Anderson dropped into the defensive line:
Within this diamond formation, it’s the (left) winger’s role to provide passing options inside the channels. Either by dropping deep to receive with their back towards goal or by providing a long pass option with a run in behind.
During the first half sequence against Latvia below, Gordon first drops deeper within the left channel to provide a short option:
He then immediately attacks the channel in behind the defensive line after Rice chooses a short pass to Lewis-Skelly.
Eighteen seconds later, England were pushed back into their own half, but another run in behind by Gordon allowed them to attack the final third again. Gordon converted this run himself to deliver the opening goal.
When England establish possession within the final third. The horizontal relation between fullback and winger flips. Then, the fullbacks inverts into the channel, whilst the winger provides width. The left winger’s main responsibility is to play short combinations with the left back or left defensive/central midfielder (Rice as a box-to-box mid) and to beat their defender on the outside to create space for a (often left-footed) cross to Harry Kane. This set-up is visualized below:
Against Latvia, they formed this left-sided triangle within the first minute of the match:
The situation below shows the exact moment where this triangle is formed. Lewis-Skelly receives the ball out wide, just around the edge of the final third and Gordon immediately moves wide. This creates space inside the left half-space for either Rice or Lewis-Skelly to dive into.
This time the diamond is formed with Rice in a deeper position and Lewis-Skelly more advanced. Latvia commits four defenders to counter this triangle, forcing the left winger wide.
Here we see the importance of being able to play left-footed crosses after beating the fullback on the outside:
Defensively, Tuchel asks his winger to press with high intensity, stepping up towards right centre backs in a back three or trapping right backs against the touchline. In the example below, Gordon leaves his direct opponent (RWB), but does well in making an angled run towards the RCB, closing the passing lane in his back.
When he has arrived at the centre back, through his angled run he has bought enough time for Lewis-Skelly to move towards the right wing-back, preventing an easy third-man combination.
Rashford’s performance this season
Watching Rashford’s recent games for Barcelona and England provides a comprehensive view of how he might fit into Tuchel’s vision.
It seems that Rashford would fit well into his manager’s defensive and middle third structure. Before entering the final third, Rashford is used to playing on the inside, with Alejandro Balde as a wide left back behind him.
From this inverted position he drops deep to offer passing options inside the left half-space. He helps evade pressure in build-up, although a reception was usually followed by a backwards pass or a turnover following poor decision-making - we already saw his lower number of progressive passes per game.
In the example below from their recent game against Elche, he drops deep within the left channel and receives the ball. However, rather than holding up the ball for a few milliseconds and then playing a simple pass to Pedri, he chooses a difficult one-touch pass to De Jong, in between three opponents.
His pass is inaccurate and Elche is able to counter with 6 against 5.
Half a minute later he makes the right decision, holding up play rather than choosing the difficult option (playing Balde in tight space).
He is able to evade the pressure with a simple pass:
Below is another example of him providing a passing option within the left channel:
Here, he doesn’t fully commit to his run and is easily beaten in a duel with his direct opponent, leading to a loss of possession
When he was able to turn with the ball or receive the ball, facing the goal, he was most dangerous, allowing him to create high-quality chances for himself for teammates. Rashford has a very direct play-style, utilizing his impressive physicality (pace and power), thriving in large spaces. This allows him to punish high pressing teams and high lines in (fabricated) transition. Against Elche he was constantly trying to stretch the defensive line vertically and provide options in behind:
Below, he first drops deep to provide a short option, dragging his defender with him:
Then, he attacks the space in behind:
Within the final third, his positioning also fits into Tuchel’s vision. In the example below, he starts in an inverted position, with Balde in a wide position behind him. When Balde receives the ball and carries it into the final third, Rashford makes a similar run as we have seen Gordon make for England, creating space inside the left half-space for others:
He was often receiving wide and looking for one-two’s inside, to create space for a key pass or shoot from distance. These one-two’s were often over longer distances and more direct than the short combinations between Gordon and Lewis-Skelly or Rice. If executed well, they allowed Rashford to utilise his elite (powerful) ball-striking ability. However, he often looked too direct, playing passes hastily. Rather than drawing multiple defenders to him, he aims to punish opponents quickly. He played many one-touch passes, which put him into situations of receiving the ball back in tight space whilst arriving at high speed. This is not an area of the game in which he excels, being a more robust hybrid forward. Grealish would be more comfortable in those situations.
Below, he receives wide from Balde and performs a quick one-two combination with him:
He then moves inside for another one-two and plays a direct pass towards Ferran Torres. His one-touch pass is too hard to control however, and Ferran turns the ball over.
Fifteen seconds later, Barcelona were in a similar situation, with Rashford receiving the ball wide from Balde. This time, he chose to play a one-touch pass to De Jong.
He moves towards De Jong for a potential one-two, but in doing so closes the space and forces a turnover by his own teammate.
I think Rashford is most effectively used against nations that press England high, which I don’t think will be many possible opponents. He will have to wait for opponents to be forced to leave their own half, when they’re chasing a goal for example. However, I don’t think Tuchel will trust Rashford at left wing when defending a one-goal lead, due to his tendency to turn the ball over — rather choosing Grealish (more control). Thus, Rashford will probably be used as a sub when up 2-0/3-1, to punish nations in transition and kill the game (i.e, deliver the final blow).
One of his strengths has been his decent left foot, which allows him to be a threat beating defenders on the outside. In LaLiga, 42% of his xG and his only two goals have come from left-footed shots (FotMob). This skill fits into Tuchel’s plan, without bringing any negatives. He can finish with his left or find teammates with a left-footed cross.
During his limited recent minutes as a striker, he was also relying mostly on drifting wide (left) to create space for shots/key passes. Five of the eight shots in the shot map below happened during the second half against Girona, when he was playing as a striker (FotMob):
Rashford has been criticized by Paul Scholes, among others, claiming he ‘was not trying’ defensively. However, he is now playing for Barcelona, who have been one of the most intense pressing teams over the past two seasons. They have ranked 1st in LaLiga in 24/25 and 25/26 in terms of PPDA (passes allowed before a defensive action). Across the top 5 leagues, only Como and PSG have had a lower PPDA than them this season. And watching Rashford play, he is not necessarily lazy — he showed willingness to press aggressively. However, he often chose the wrong running lines, meaning he didn’t close passing lanes or cover his defensive assignment effectively
Like the situation below, which preceded Elche’s only goal in the match. Rashford is tasked with jumping towards the right centre back, similarly to Gordon for England before. However, rather than making that same angled run, Rashford makes a straight run, closing no passing lanes in his back and leaving the right back open:
When he arrives at the right centre back, he realizes the passing lane to the right back is open and makes a last-second jump to close it:
However, this move in turn opened up the space for Elche defender to step into, allowing him to switch play:
With a ‘simple’ angled run, this failed press — and the conceded goal — could have been prevented.
Who will start?
It’s still seven months until WC 26, but based on current form and Tuchel’s previous choices, I expect Gordon to start against most opponents, because of his better ball progression and pressing ability compared to Rashford, whilst also offering directness off the ball. Off the bench, the creativity of Grealish might be called upon when struggling to break low blocks, whilst Rashford can be a high-line punisher.
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